So – are we finally on the cusp of mainstream UTM/AAM deployments? Almost.
Three Interlocking Elements: Technology, Regulations and Commercialization
The three critical areas of progress revolve around technology, regulations and commercialization. The three are interdependent.
Over the near-term future – let’s say three years – we should finally see the alignment of these three factors after a long period of uneven progress during which the technology was galloping ahead of the regulations and commercialization.
On the technology front, we expect that advancements will continue to involve improvements to sensor integrations and computing power, including AI, into autonomous aviation. Also, more efficient aircraft propulsion and designs will begin to overcome some of the economic barriers to implementation. The US manufacturing of drones, at a competitive price, is a major barrier right now while legal pressure is building to limit the use of Chinese-made drones due to security concerns.
On the regulatory front, the expected publication of a new rule to support routine BVLOS flight of drones in low-risk areas is expected in late summer in the US. This should mean a smoother, more standardized path for advanced commercial use of drones in 12 to 18 months when the rule is finalized. Following on the heels of those changes, we expect to see a path for certification and authorization of larger drones as well, although this will take years.
For commercialization, we’re seeing the creation of major public-private partnerships to build crucial infrastructure for this next generation of aviation. Our local Skyway36 droneport, just outside Tulsa, is a great example of this, creating an innovation park for autonomous flight while supporting testing and research, and providing maintenance and administration services. We are seeing similar initiatives in North Dakota and elsewhere as local investment is beginning to bear fruit.
The industry overall cannot advance until all three elements keep pace and come into alignment - and we are finally beginning to see this happen as regulations and commercialization efforts begin to catch up to the technology.
Technological Leaps: Ahead of the Curve
The technology for autonomous flight has always trended ahead of the regulations and business development.
For example, while completely autonomous aircraft have been available even at the small-scale commercial level for years, the regulations to allow them to fly is lagging years behind. The airframes, propulsion, power, autopilots, radios and software are available now. Our company, for example, has supported multiple fully autonomous flights, including long-range multi-mile BVLOS flights under waiver of both fixed-wing and multi-rotor small UAS as well as supporting much larger, primarily autonomous military RPAs.
But the larger regulatory questions to support autonomous BVLOS drones remain open:
- What air traffic surveillance and communication redundancies are you required to have, exactly, to fly BVLOS and if you wanted to invest in this infrastructure, would the regulator grant you broad permissions?
- Would the permissions be enough to support commercial operations?
- How can you be certain and what are the consequences for a private company of getting it wrong?
These questions still plague industry, even as the technology accelerates.
Regarding the important topic of air traffic management, how will we orchestrate this growing volume of low altitude autonomous flights to avoid collisions with each other, with general aviation aircraft, or any other obstacle in the air or on the ground? While Unmanned Traffic Management (UTM) has emerged as a likely structure for using and sharing flight data between drone operators, there are numerous disparate data sources required to make the system effective for safety and not just coordination.
The use of critical radars, flight data, optical data, and other sources require close integration to the UTM system for safety. While we have learned how to integrate many of these sources into airspace management, including air traffic control data, radar data, and dozens of air navigation charts, maps and live data, more work remains on this technology front. But progress is being made quickly.
Regulatory Progress
Regulations in the US and worldwide have progressed in fits and starts, with much excitement after the publication of the FAA’s Part 107 in 2016, authorizing the commercial drone industry. But there was slow progress after that. Congress has since mandated the integration of drones into the US National Airspace System and the authorization of beyond visual line-of-sight flight (BVLOS), but the rules to allow either have not yet appeared.
However, with many recent BVLOS waivers granted for low-altitude, low-risk flights of drones for tasks like industrial inspection, and several major exemptions allowing companies to deploy drones more widely, the FAA is showing light at the end of the tunnel.
The US Congress passed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, taking the industry seriously, supporting it and mandating that the FAA act. After many years, this is a big step.
The likely publication of the first Notice of Public Rulemaking regarding routine BVLOS rules for drones, “Part 108”, is expected in August 2024. It’s an opportunity for the public to review and comment on new rules particularly regarding BVLOS operations and approvals, versus the current process of special, individualized FAA waivers. This will be a huge regulatory advancement for operators because it will provide certainty and allow for greater effort and investment in BVLOS drone infrastructure and operations.
I had the opportunity to serve on the FAA committee that conceived and drafted these rules and gained insight into where we have been and where we are headed.
Overall, we expect the new rules to allow for nearly immediate flight of certain small drones over low-risk rural areas beyond visual line-of-sight with some basic precautions. Next, the authorization of larger drones flying over more densely populated areas will require additional training, certification and software and more infrastructure but will provide much more useful commercial missions and lead the way to Advanced Air Mobility. Both changes will provide a more certain path to authorization than applying for individualized waivers. Once the aircraft, pilot and basic support services for an operating company and area have met the standard, flying BVLOS will be a daily event.
This “Part 108” announcement is expected to have a dramatic effect on the industry, similar to the introduction of Part 107 in 2016, which launched the entire commercial drone industry in the US. With new rules and new confidence, we can expect new investment, new startups and industry growth to follow.
Commercialization and the Importance of Public-Private Partnerships
So, with technology and the regulatory environment developing, commercialization follows. We see increasing investment in droneports, corridors, and the related support infrastructure as autonomous flight comes out of the testing phase and is used for real-world solutions.
Just as the development of airports involved public-private partnerships to engage industry, we’re seeing similar orchestrated development of basic infrastructure to allow for air traffic surveillance that is crucial for the safe flight of BVLOS drones.
In Europe, we’re seeing similar progress with the launch of U-Space support by regulators – the European version of UTM – increasing the coordination and legitimacy of sustained commercial drone use. Similar to various US initiatives, the UK, to name just one region outside the US, is also establishing programs.
Typically, these programs involve a local government, authority, commission or economic development office spearheading an effort to attract funding from a state or local government and then publishing a solicitation for industry to help build and manage infrastructure, especially including radars and airspace management systems.
For example, here in Oklahoma, we have experienced sustained R&D investment into our advanced detect-and-avoid system by the state’s Oklahoma Center for the Advancement of Science and Technology (OCAST). In addition, we’re also seeing support from major aerospace engineering schools like the Oklahoma Aerospace Institute (OAIRE) at Oklahoma State University, which is providing engineering support, expertise, aircraft and facilities for our R&D work.
Looking to the Future: Scaling Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)
The next UAS phase will be operating in dense urban areas and larger aircraft (AAM) - commercial urban drone use, especially for deliveries, and then AAM for moving larger goods autonomously supported by initiatives sponsored by the US military and major aircraft and auto manufacturers.
There’s still much experimentation and testing to be done as the technology matures and must now be integrated together– but also on the governance and business model for large-scale deployments to become a reality. Ahead are issues around who owns these private-public initiatives, as well as “How do we make money?”. Is there a viable business or even public service to be run here? With considerable upfront investments, these questions are not insignificant.
Beyond the exciting developments expected for the UAS industry over the next three years, the future of AAM, which involves larger aircraft designed for heavy cargo delivery and moving people, still has some way to go. Many of the challenges mirror those of the small UAS industry, but the size of aircraft inevitably opens a new set of challenges.
While AAM developers benefit from using existing rules for small general aviation aircraft and helicopters to provide a certification and regulatory path in authorizing these aircraft, the technical and business model challenges remain significant while the cost of development is higher due to the larger size and higher risk.
Developing this part of the industry involves launching and certifying a whole new class of aircraft – mostly electrical vertical take-off and landing aircraft – which requires significant investment. An important step was the publication of the eVtol authorization (FAA Statement on eVTOL Aircraft Certification | Federal Aviation Administration).
The US Air Force’s Agility Prime and Autonomy Prime initiatives are also testaments to the competitive impetus to develop this technology, and the eventual use becomes evident.
With major branches of the military and numerous large private companies involved, particularly traditional aircraft manufacturers, like Boeing through Wisk and large automakers, like Hyundai through Supernal, it’s clear AAM is a key part of future mobility investment strategies, nationally.
The End of the Beginning
But for now, midway through 2024, we see many exciting initiatives getting UAS ready for prime time.
In the area of UAS operations we’re frequently seeing more rural, agricultural and industrial uses of drones with new BVLOS authorizations. Hold that thought about drone burrito deliveries for now: The real use cases are more utilitarian.
Critical infrastructure inspection and security are growing use cases, especially around facilities such as power plants, ports, prisons and military bases. These are frequently replacing or supplementing video and human surveillance with a far more agile, cost-effective and reliable solution. Public sector uses like “drone as a first responder” (DFR) programs for emergency response, search and rescue and similar uses are also providing a backbone of support for these projects.
As the regulations begin to catch up and align with the technology and commercialization progress, we can expect the next three years of industry development to see major progress towards routine operations and the realization of the economic potential of both the burgeoning small UAS and the AAM industries.
About the Author
Kraettli Epperson is CEO of Vigilant Aerospace, the leading developer of multi-sensor detect-and-avoid and airspace management software for uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS or drones). We enable safe and scalable autonomous flight, beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS). Customers include NASA, the FAA, the U.S. Department of Defense and a variety of drone development programs.
